Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel

Macquarie University via Coursera

Go to Course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/judgmental-business-forecasting-in-excel

Introduction

**Course Review: Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel on Coursera** In the dynamic landscape of business, accurate forecasting can set the trajectory for strategic decision-making and operational efficiency. If you are looking to enhance your forecasting skills beyond traditional quantitative methods, the "Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel" course on Coursera is an excellent choice. This course builds on foundational concepts developed in the preceding courses of the Business Forecasting Specialization, focusing specifically on the power of judgmental approaches when quantitative data falls short. ### Course Overview The course delves into the nuances of judgmental forecasting, a vital element in the forecasting toolkit that allows professionals to navigate scenarios where pure statistical methods may be ineffective. Through a blend of theory and practical application, participants will learn how to utilize structured methodologies for crafting business forecasts by leveraging Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. Moreover, the course effectively integrates Microsoft Excel as a powerful tool for executing and visualizing these judgmental forecasting strategies. ### Syllabus Breakdown 1. **Welcome and Critical Information**: The course kicks off with an overview that sets expectations and contextualizes the learning journey. It emphasizes the importance of judgment in forecasting, especially when quantitative analysis has its limitations. 2. **Business Indicators**: Here, students will learn about key business indicators that can shape forecasts, particularly in understanding cyclical trends. The integration of Excel in this context aids participants in bringing their insights to life, enhancing their analytical capabilities. 3. **Subjective Assessment Methods**: This section explores three structured methodologies: the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. Each method is meticulously examined to provide clarity on when and how to utilize them, along with Excel techniques that bolster their effectiveness. 4. **Exploratory Methods**: Students will dive into the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis, further expanding their toolkit for judgmental forecasting. The practical application of these methods within Excel ensures that learners not only understand the theory but can apply it skillfully. 5. **Biases & Bringing All of Business Forecasting Together**: The course culminates in a critical reflection on biases that can distort forecasting judgments. Additionally, a case study assessment enables learners to synthesize and apply their knowledge effectively, solidifying their understanding of how to utilize judgmental forecasting methodologies. ### Why Should You Enroll? If you are a business analyst, operations manager, or anyone involved in strategic planning, this course is tailored for you. It equips you with the skills necessary to bridge the gap between quantitative data and real-world business insights, enabling you to make more informed, strategic decisions. Here are a few compelling reasons to enroll: - **Practical Skills**: With a strong emphasis on Excel, learners will walk away with hands-on experience that can be applied immediately in their work environment. - **Expert Instruction**: The course is led by experienced instructors who bring practical insights and academic expertise to the table, ensuring a well-rounded educational experience. - **Collaborative Learning**: Coursera’s platform encourages interaction among peers, allowing for a rich exchange of ideas and diverse perspectives on forecasting methodologies. - **Flexible Learning**: Designed to accommodate busy professionals, the course allows you to learn at your own pace, making it accessible no matter your schedule. ### Conclusion In an age where business landscapes are ever-evolving, the ability to accurately forecast trends and make data-driven decisions is paramount. The "Judgmental Business Forecasting in Excel" course on Coursera stands out as a program that not only extends foundational knowledge but also equips learners with the necessary tools to tackle real-world forecasting challenges head-on. I highly recommend this course for anyone looking to elevate their business forecasting acumen and leverage Excel in their decision-making processes. Embark on this learning journey today and transform the way you approach business forecasting!

Syllabus

Welcome and Critical Information

In this course, we extend your business forecasting expertise from the first two courses of our Business Forecasting Specialisation on Time Series Models and Regression Models. We will explore the role of judgmental forecasting, when more quantitative forecasting methods have limitations, and we need to generate further business insights. We will be exploring some structured methodologies to create judgmental business forecasts using Business Indicators, Subjective Assessment Methods, and Exploratory Methods. For each of these methods, we will look at how we can use Excel to help us in achieving these judgmental forecasts and how Excel can help us visualising our forecast findings. Being judgmental forecasting methods, we will also look at the role of biases in Business Forecasting,

Business Indicators

In this topic, we will explore the role that Business Indicators can play in creating business forecasts, in particular to make judgments on the cyclical component, via predicting turns in the business cycle. We will then look at how Excel can help us execute these insights into business forecasts.

Subjective Assessment Methods

In this topic, we will be exploring 3 different Subjective Assessment Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Sales Force Composite Method, the Jury of Executive Opinion, and Subjective Probability Assessments. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.

Exploratory Methods

In this topic, we will be exploring 2 different Exploratory Methods for judgmental forecasting. These are structured methodologies to follow when creating judgmental forecasts. We will be looking at the Delphi Method and Scenario Analysis. We will then look at how Excel can assist in executing these methodologies.

Biases & Bringing All of Business Forecasting Together

In this topic, we will reflect on the biases that can occur when conducting business forecasts. Then, we will be bringing all the topics together in a case study based assessment, where you will need to apply the principles of judgment to decide the forecasting method used, and utilise judgmental forecasting.