Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively

Go to Course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/inductive-reasoning

Introduction

**Course Review: Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively** Are you ready to elevate your critical thinking skills? If you're intrigued by the art of reasoning and want to enhance your ability to solve problems—from uncovering a murder mystery to troubleshooting a computer failure—then the Coursera course "Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively" is just what you need. ### Course Overview "Think Again III" is designed to equip learners with essential tools for analyzing and assessing inductive arguments, making it the third course in the "Introduction to Logic and Critical Thinking" specialization. The course promises an engaging exploration of various forms of inductive reasoning, including generalizations from samples, applications of generalizations, inference to the best explanation, arguments from analogy, and causal reasoning. The insights gained here will be valuable not just in academic settings but also in practical, everyday decision-making processes. ### Content Breakdown 1. **Inductive Arguments** - **What You'll Learn:** Distinguishing inductive from deductive arguments, identifying and evaluating various inductive arguments, and understanding the common pitfalls associated with them. - **Learning Outcomes:** By the end of this section, you'll master the ability to analyze arguments from samples and apply generalizations effectively. 2. **Causal Reasoning** - **What You'll Learn:** Grasping the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions and differentiating between correlation and causation. - **Learning Outcomes:** This week empowers you to dissect causal arguments, enabling you to determine what truly causes what—a crucial skill in any analytical context. 3. **Chance and Choice** - **What You'll Learn:** The mechanics of probability and decision-making—key concepts in assessing the strength of inductive arguments and making informed choices. - **Learning Outcomes:** You’ll gain proficiency in calculating expected values and applying Bayes’ theorem to real-life scenarios, which holds immense utility in navigating uncertainty. 4. **Catch-Up and Final Quiz** - This section provides a valuable buffer to consolidate your knowledge. The format allows you to retake quizzes, ensuring you can learn from mistakes and improve over time. ### Recommended Readings While the course itself is comprehensive, students looking for in-depth discussions on inductive arguments are advised to check out "Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition." This supplementary material aligns with the course topics and provides more extensive examples and insights. ### Course Strengths - **Engaging Delivery:** The course employs innovative teaching methods to maintain student interest, making learning both effective and enjoyable. - **Practical Application:** The lessons are designed with real-world contexts in mind, allowing students to see the relevance of inductive reasoning in their daily lives. - **Flexible Learning:** The structure supports varied pacing, where learners can review complex topics, making it suitable for individuals with different learning speeds. ### Who Should Take This Course? This course is perfect for anyone looking to sharpen their reasoning abilities—students, professionals, or even casual learners who wish to enhance their analytical skills. If you care about making better-informed decisions and want to refine your critical thinking capabilities, "Think Again III" is highly recommended. ### Final Thoughts In a world overflowing with information and differing opinions, the ability to reason inductively is invaluable. Whether you're analyzing data, evaluating claims, or making critical decisions, this course will provide you with the foundational skills you need. The journey through "Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively" promises to be enlightening and empowering. By arming yourself with solid reasoning skills, you set the stage for personal and professional growth. Enroll today and embark on a pathway to clearer thinking and smarter decision-making!

Syllabus

Welcome to the Course

Welcome to Think Again: How to Reason Inductively! This course is the third in the specialization Introduction to Logic and Critical Thinking, based on our original Coursera course titled Think Again: How to Reason and Argue. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn. In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "Introduction to the Specialization" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later.

CONTENT: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:

• distinguish inductive from deductive arguments
• classify inductive arguments into five kinds
• identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples
• identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases
• identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet
• identify and evaluate arguments from analogy

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapters 8 and 9.

CONTENT: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do:

• analyze causal reasoning
• distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions
• determine what is necessary or sufficient for what
• separate causation from correlation

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapter 10.

CONTENT: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value.

LEARNING OUTCOMES: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do:

• solve some classic paradoxes of probability
• apply simple rules of probability
• use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities
• avoid fallacies of probability
• apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values
• distinguish financial value from overall value
• use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty

OPTIONAL READING: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition, Chapters 11 and 12

This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time.

We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences.